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Demand for electricity

Figure 5.1 Domestic net consumption

5.1_2019_EN.png

 

The major predictors of electricity demand are economic performance, demography and newly also electromobility along with the level of fossil fuel replacement in the energy balance. Despite efforts to save energy and the increasing outside temperatures, the pro-growth trends affecting electricity demand in both the medium and long term still prevail throughout Europe. Rising demand is also expected in the Czech Republic. Progressive development in power consumption is being addressed in several specific areas: the production sector, households, electromobility and transition to local heating.


Medium-term horizon

The level of demand development in the production sector depends primarily on the creation of added value and is very similar in all case studies under consideration. Based on the apparent pro-growth trend, demand is expected to increase to approximately 53.8 TWh (a 13% rise). Household demand is greatly affected by demographic aspects, or rather the expected outlook for the number of households as estimates have gone up significantly over time and the number of households is projected to reach 4.8 million in 2030. In the medium term, all case studies will experience a similar growth rate, causing the demand to increase by nearly 12% to 17.1 TWh. Some differences can be seen with respect to electromobility which is expected to develop earlier in low-carbon case studies than in the Conceptual case study. Electricity demand will reach approximately 2 TWh, or 0.9 TWh, in 2030. The overall demand at the level of domestic net consumption (DNC) will increase by approximately 15% (compared to 2018), reaching about 72 TWh (including electromobility); this applies to all case studies as the differences between them are minimal.


Long-term horizon

Trends similar to those indicated in the medium term can also be observed in the long-term. The production sector demand will rise to 63 TWh by 2060 (a one-third increase compared to 2018) while any disproportion between individual case studies will remain minimal. The number of households will peak between 2040 and 2050. As specific consumption continues to go up, household demand will also increase over the long term. The demand is expected to peak at 22.2 TWh in the New Technologies case study, at 20 TWh in the Conservative case study and at 18.6 TWh in the Conceptual case study. Electromobility is likely to experience the biggest increase compared to present day. The share of electric cars will rise substantially (the data provided here apply to the M1 category only), amounting to 61% in the Conceptual case study and up to 74% in either of the low-carbon case studies in 2060. This translates into an increase in demand of up to 13.1 TWh, or 10.3 TWh in the Conceptual case study. In 2060, the highest demand at the DNC level (including electromobility) is observed in the New Technologies case study, namely 98.5 TWh (a 57% increase compared to 2018); in the Conservative case study the demand will reach 95.6 TWh (a 52.3% increase) and in the Conceptual case study 91.6 TWh (a 46% increase).