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Demand for gas

The chosen direction of the energy sector development will have a major impact on the demand for gas in CZ. In addition to the general economic development, the demand for gas will be greatly influenced by the utilization of gas in electricity monoproduction and in combined heat and power production and in replacement of fossil fuels, mainly local brown coal. 

Up to the previous version of The Anticipated Long-term Balance Between Supply and Demand for Electricity and Gas it was possible to say that the Czech Republic would achieve the greatest demand for gas if the energy sector developed in accordance with the applicable SEP. The most significant factor in the gas demand growth would thus be the necessity to replace domestic brown coal. Analyses of the three aforementioned case studies dealt with in 2018 indicate that the necessity to replace nuclear power will result in an approximately twofold demand for natural gas in comparison to replacement of domestic brown coal – complete replacement of nuclear power is thus by far the most important possible growth factor of demand for gas.

Medium term horizon

  • In the medium term, the development of demand for gas does not differ significantly according to the individual case studies, which is given by the very similar development of demand for gas intended for electricity monoproduction and CHP as well as by compensation for some pro-growth and anti-growth influences. In the Renewable and Gas case studies a higher level of saving is achieved; however, in most cases they both have higher level of use in new sectors.
  • The Conceptual case study expects the total gas consumption, including CNG/LNG, at 112 TWh in 2030, which represents an increase by approx. 25% when compared to the year 2017; in the same category it is 104 TWh for the Renewable case study and 111 TWh for the Gas case study.

Total gas consumption

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Long term horizon

  • Up to 2040, all the case study expect a substantial increase in the demand for gas; after 2040, the demand will grow significantly only in case of case studies with nuclear power replacement, i.e. the Renewable and mainly the Gas case study.
  • The Conceptual case study in 2050 expects the value of total gas consumption to be 151 TWh, which is a value comparable with that in the Distributed variant dealt with in 2016, or in the Conceptual case study dealt with in 2017.
  • If it were necessary to completely replace nuclear power industry, utilization of gas in electricity monoproduction would by far be the most significant growth factor in the demand for gas in the Czech Republic, even in case of intensive development of renewable resources for power production – because of replacement of the last two nuclear blocks (the Temelin nuclear power plant), gas sources in Czech conditions would consume at least approx. 22.5 TWh of gas (Renewable case study), or up to 31.3 TWh (Gas case study).
  • In addition to electricity monoproduction and CHP, the development of demand for gas will be determined by utilization during replacement of graded brown coal and utilization in transport in the form of CNG and LNG. According to the current outlook, utilization of CNG and LNG in transport will be temporary.
  • In transportation sector, the gas consumption in forms of CNG/LNG will be approx. 17 TWh in 2050 for the Conceptual case study, approx. 10 TWh for the Renewable case study and approx. 21 TWh for the Gas case study.
  • The total gas consumption (including CNG/LNG) will achieve 151 TWh in 2050 according to the Conceptual case study, which is an increase by approx. 69% in comparison to the year 2017, in the same category it is 138 TWh for the Renewable case study and 219 TWh for the Gas case study.