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Gas sources

Medium-term horizon

Natural gas originating from Russia shall, with its two-third share, dominate the source portfolio on Czech market at least in course of duration of the long-term contract between RWE Supply & Trading and Gazprom Export, i.e. by 2035. Apart from the stable domestic extraction of gas reaching 1% to 2% of total gas consumption in the Czech Republic, the rest of the needs will remain to be saturated by gas purchase on European gas exchanges. By the end of the examined period and with the continuing transition of biogas stations to plants generating biomethane, it will also be contributed to by domestic generation of renewable gas in the maximum volume comparable to domestic production.

Major share of Russian gas will prevail on European level as it will be completed by Norwegian and Algerian gas in an ever-smaller rate. Growing share shall by contrast be provided by LNG coming from Qatar, United States, Russia or Nigeria. Gas supplies from Azerbaijanian production in the Caspian Sea shall flow to Europe (mainly Italy) in rather insignificant volumes.

Long-term horizon

After 2030, the share of Russian gas and LNG on the European market will grow at the expense of the declining production in Norway, Algeria and rapid decline in production in the Netherlands. The share of the two main sources will primarily depend on total demand for gas in the EU, on LNG prices on global markets and on the strategy of Gazprom which can either try to gain maximum share on the European market or maintain favourable prices of the exported gas. The high scenario of imports of Russian gas anticipates up to 195 bcm per year flowing to EU countries in 2040 while the LNG supplies shall only total 40 bcm. In the inverse scenario, the imports from Russia keep their top position however the volume of LNG supplies will approximate their volume (135 vs 100 bcm). Nevertheless, the share of Russian gas on European market is in general anticipated to grow considerably as the imports will be, apart from the traditional gas supplies, also provided in the form of LNG.

Table 12.1        Outlook for expected gas supplies to the EU (bcm)


Table 12.2        Development projects and the impact of scenarios on their possible use