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Operation of the Czech Power System

Composition of the generation base and measures supporting operation in all case studies are designed to ensure operation with the required standard of reliability. Supporting measures are introduced with the regard to cost efficiency; i.e. beginning with the easiest and least costly to implement (consumption management, electric boilers) and progressing towards the most expensive ones (P2G technology).

Today's way of the CZ PS operation will be maintained approximately until 2030. The anticipated decrease in regulating and increase in distributed sources, which are often renewable and intermittent, creates the need for timely advancement of the new static and dynamic flexibility measures. Given the dispersed character of new sources, their operation will have to be controlled via technologically or locally-oriented aggregators. Independent aggregators will include new entities that will join numerous minor units to a form of standardized marketable products. Primary energy sources supplies are shown in the following figures.

Mid-term horizon

The current surplus in the power balance will substantially decrease due to the decommissioning of sources. In turn, this will lead to lower electricity export. However, as LOLE and ENS indicators suggest, the system will continue to be dependable, unless there is unexpected early decommissioning of major sources.

Operation of the system is very similar according to most indicators for all case studies. Nuclear power plants can utilize all their available capacity during this period. Larger fossil fuel fired power plants will keep their available capacity utilization at 60 to 70%. Electricity supply from brown coal will drop from 35 TWh to approximately 29 TWh due to decommissioning, i.e. to the level of supply from nuclear fuel. Electricity supplies from natural gas will increase by about 20% to 5–6 TWh (in the Conceptual and Gas case study respectivetly). At the same time, capacity utilization of large power plants gas fired sources is expected to range between 20 and 25%. Electricity supply from RES experiences the fastest increase from less than 8 TWh to between 11.5 TWh (in the Conceptual case study) and 18 TWh (in the Renewable case study), a growth of nearly 50 to 130%.

Supplies from large sources will decrease from 75 to 70 TWh with respect to the whole Czech power system. Supplies from small sources (connected to LV or HV) will increase from 9 TWh to approximately 13 TWh (in the Conceptual case study) to 19 TWh (in the Renewable case study).

The installed capacity of currently regulating sources decreases to 80% as early as in 2025. By contrast, the demand for regulation reserves (technical, not commercial as ancillary services) is expected to increase by about 12% (in the Conceptual case study) to 22% (in the Renewable case study).

The Conceptual and Gas case studies envisage the utilization of daily accumulation mainly to ensure grid operability. It involves installed capacity of 130 MW in total in 2030. In the Renewable case study, the value of demand for daily accumulation is higher at approximately 375 MW. In this case study, starting in 2026, daily accumulation is also required to keep the power balance across the entire power system in the amount to 500 MW for 2030. Thus, the total volume of daily accumulation in the Renewable case study for 2030 may reach 875 MW.

Conceptual case study – electricity supplies

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Long-term horizon

Additional 550 MW worth of coal power plants are decommissioned between 2030 and 2031. Operation according to the presented case studies is highly differentiated in the long-term horizon. In the period of 2036–2045, all three case studies consider the decommissioning of further 6 GW of installed capacity in coal and nuclear blocks; however, the case studies differ sharply in the ways the lost capacity is to be replaced.

In the Conceptual case study, the supply from new nuclear units replaces the decrease of its predecessors and the majority of supplies from brown coal. Increase in generation from nuclear sources is delayed compared to SEP; the share of nuclear power plants in electricity generation reaches 37.5% in 2040 and is below the level anticipated in SEP (46 - 58%) which is not to be achieved until 2045. The delays in the construction of nuclear power plants, based on numerous projections made in previous years, are the main reason for the commissioning of several SCGT units prior to 2041.The increase in electricity supplies from natural gas (despite growing utilization levels) is nearly threefold and covers the remaining capacity left by the loss of brown coal.

Extreme development of intermittent generation in the Renewable case study causes an increase in the required reserve capacity. A similar trend can also be observed in the Conceptual case study where this is due to the operation of sources with large unit capacities. The LOLE and ENS indicators meet required values in the long-term horizon.

In the Renewable case study, the supplies from nuclear and brown coal sources are replaced primarily by RES. The remaining portion of supply and the increase in domestic consumption, is covered by electricity from natural gas, which increased more than twofold. High supplies from intermittent sources require additional gas fired sources as a non-spinning reserve. Daily electricity accumulation develops at a fast pace. Production and subsequent utilization of synthetic methane culminate in 2040.  

Renewable case study – electricity supplies

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In the Gas case study, natural gas fired sources play a decisive role in replacing the supplies from coal and nuclear sources. Increase in installed capacity of gas fired sources goes hand in hand with an increase in their utilization. Utilization increases also for solid fuel fired sources, nuclear sources reach utilization of 100% once again. Daily accumulation develops moderately.

From 2045, there are only minimal changes in the system in Conceptual case study. In both Renewable and Gas case studies there is a substantial change in electricity supply structure. Supplies from nuclear sources are replaced by supplies from natural gas. These are secured by a pair of new CCGT units and utilisation increase within the entire group until 2048. However, the Renewable case study suggests a subsequent utilisation decrease as the year-on-year, as the growth in supplies from RES continue to be substantial. Rapid growth of daily accumulation continues accordingly. Daily accumulation development in the Gas case study is only moderate and is focused to meet grid regulation requirements.

In the year of 2050, electricity supplies from centralized sources in the Conceptual / Renewable / Gas case studies reach annually 73 / 38 / 61 TWh and from distributed sources 19 / 55 / 21 TWh respectively.

Gas case study – electricity supplies

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