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Source base

The source base development presented is based on the opinions of the source operators, on statutory requirements and on technology development analyses. The source base proposed for individual case studies is designed to ensure both capacity and generation sufficiency as well as operational reliability. This requirement is not met only in several years, which is due to time discrepancies between the decommissioning of old and the commissioning of new sources. The source base structure undergoes a significant transformation in all of the analysed case studies.

There will be substantial decline in brown-coal sources over the next 25 years. Brown-coal power plants will be subjected to major restrictions starting in 2030. After 2030, only a few selected power plants (Prunéřov II, Tušimice II, Chvaletice, and Počerady in particular) will remain in operation and it is likely that the 660 MW block in Ledvice will be the only large source in operation by 2050. Heating sources and autoproducers will also experience a downturn in production. The total capacity of brown-coal sources in individual case studies ranges from 850 to 1,100 MW in 2050. The reasons for the downturn include dwindling brown-coal deposits and environmental requirements.

Out of today's approximate 22,400 MW of installed capacity there will be an increase in the total installed capacity (without accumulation means) by 2050 to:

  • 5 GW in the Conceptual case study,
  • 6 GW in the Renewable case study,
  • 2 GW in the Gas case study.

The wide differences are due to source composition where photovoltaic sources with low annual utilization represent the highest share in capacity in the case of the Renewable case study. Nuclear power plants will be utilized quite differently in each of the case studies. While in the Conceptual case study, sources in Dukovany will be renewed and the Temelin power plant will be scaled up by two additional blocks (the total installed capacity will be 7.1 GW in 2050), the remaining two case studies do not envisage the source renewal in Dukovany and, at the same time, anticipate relatively early decommissioning of the sources in Temelin, i.e. in 2046 and 2047, due to analytical purposes of verifying the option of complete replacement of nuclear energy. According to the Renewable and Gas case studies, no nuclear source is anticipated to remain in operation in the Czech Republic beyond 2047.

However, there will be a major increase in the capacity of renewable sources. In the Renewable case study, all RES categories will be deployed to the extent of the current consensual technical limit in the Czech Republic.

An instrumental role will be performed by photovoltaic sources whose capacity will increase to approximately 5.7 GW by 2050 in the Conceptual and Gas case studies, and up to 25 GW in the Renewable case study. Similar relationships will exist between individual case studies also with respect to wind power plants: 1.1 GW in the Conceptual and Gas case studies and 6 GW in the Renewable case study. The differences within the case studies won't be as wide with regard to other types of renewable sources (biomass, biogas). The utilization of renewable sources will require the deployment of means of regulation. They will be needed most in the Renewable study, where gas combustion units will be installed in simple cycle (up to 7x160 MW). A major tool to secure the power balance, employed in all case studies, will be accumulation technologies. These are primarily battery system used for daily accumulation. In addition, the Renewable case study also requires a seasonal accumulation system (P2G technology).

Any further lack of capacity is secured by natural gas sources. The basic sources will consist of CCGT units with capacities of mostly 430 or 840 MW for regulation purposes, complemented by both SCGTs and gas motors. The sum capacity of steam-gas sources designed for power generation (as opposed to sources for regulation and as backup) is 3.2 GW in the Conceptual case study, 3.6 GW in the Renewable case study and 7 GW in the Gas case study.

Conceptual case study – installed capacity according to PES (MW)

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Mid-term horizon

  • By 2020, several major brown-coal sources, which it won't be possible to operate due to excessive emission levels, will be decommissioned or operated for a limited period on an exemption basis. This involves 1.5 GW in total installed capacity of brown coal units.
  • In the mid-term horizon, no restrictions in the operation or decommissioning of the existing nuclear sources are anticipated.
  • The installed capacity of RES will slightly increase.
  • There will also be a modest decrease in the need for district heating. It will be most notable in the Renewable case study (utilization of renewable energy using heat pumps); changes in the heat consumption from the district heating systems in the remaining two case studies are minimal.

Renewable case study – installed capacity according to PES (MW)

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Long-term horizon

  • In the period of 2035–2045, several large brown-coal power plants, especially Tušimice II, Prunéřov II, Chvaletice and Počerady, will be decommissioned. This period will see the concurrent depletion of brown coal deposits and the decommissioning of these power plants, at end of their life.
  • RES will develop at a faster pace than in the preceding period. This will essentially cause changes in power grids as RES will be connected primarily to low-voltage networks as distributed sources.
  • The decommissioning of large coal power plants, mainly 200 MW units with good regulating abilities, will bring about a drop in the availability of regulation capacities. This will require the installation of regulating natural gas sources. The sources proposed include piston gas engines or SCGTs. The capacity of combustion engines will range from 120 to 160 MW according the presented case studies. In the renewable case study, additional 1,120 MW will be utilized in SCGT combustion turbines.
  • In the long-term horizon, especially the Renewable case study will require the installation of substantial quantities of energy accumulation systems. Daily accumulation will be facilitated by battery-operated equipment; the sum capacity will reach 700 MW in the Conceptual case study, approximately 270 MW in the Gas case study and over 6.8 GW in the Renewable case study. In addition to aforementioned accumulation, all case studies use pumped hydro storage for accumulation purposes with a total capacity of 1.2 GW.
  • In the Renewable case study, a total of 2.6 MW of electric capacity will be installed in seasonal accumulation systems, represented by P2G technology, by 2050.
  • After 2035, there will be some differentiation with regard to nuclear generation. In the Conceptual case study, this involves replacement of the existing Dukovany NPP by a new 2x1.2 GW units in the 2037–2039 period and commissioning of two new 1.2 GW blocks at the Temelín NPP in 2043 and 2045. In the Gas and Renewable case studies, the Dukovany NPP will be decommissioned between 2037 and 2039 without replacement, the two existing blocks at the Temelín NPP will be decommissioned without replacement during 2046 and 2047.
  • As heating plants approach the end of their life, there will be a continual increase in the capacity of small natural gas CHPs; their current capacity is approximately 330 MW, while their growth will amount to 300 MW in the Conceptual case study, 600 MW in the Renewable case study and 900 MW in the Gas case study by 2050.
  • As the availability of brown coal begins to dwindle, heating plants will have to change their fuel base; partly towards natural gas, partly towards biomass. The case studies also anticipate utilization of heat produced by the Temelín power plant to supply České Budějovice as early as from 2023.

Gas case study – installed capacity according to PES (MW)

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